Using Tesla’s announcements of Battery Day, DNV expects the cost of batteries to be reduced by 56% (measured in $/kWh) by 2025. Worldwide, DNV predicts that passenger electric vehicles are likely to start outselling their internal combustion engine counterparts from 2032 onwards. In North America, Europe and China this will take place well before 2030. Tesla’s success could spill over from land-based vehicles into adjacent transport sectors. On the assumption of success on all fronts, Tesla will achieve the critical battery density for short range electric airplanes – namely 400 Wh/kg with high cycle life.
